Diploma Thesis:

• Jochen Bröcker Rauschreduktion in nichtlinearen Systemen (Noise Reduction in Nonlinear Systems), Diplomarbeit (master thesis), January 1999, Drittes Physikalisches Institut Göttingen (only available in german).
• Full text (gzipped ps-file, 1.3 MB)
• Introduction (html-document, german)

PhD-Thesis:

• Jochen Bröcker Approximations and Applications of Nonlinear Filters, My PhD thesis, January 2003, Drittes Physikalisches Institut Göttingen.OFFICIAL VERSION (Identical to the former preprint)
• Introduction (html-document)
• Introduction in German (html-document)
• Full text (pdf-file, 1.66 MB)
• Full text (gzippet ps-file, 0.41 MB, for printout as A5-booklets. See README)

Papers, Proceedings etc.

• 1999
• Jochen Bröcker and Ulrich Parlitz Filtering Using Exponential Probability Densities, Proc. NOLTA'99
• Full text(gzipped ps-file, 80 KB)
• Jochen Bröcker, Ulrich Parlitz and Christian Merkwirth Modeling and Noise Reduction for Spatio-Temporal Systems, Proc. NOLTA'99
• Full text (gzipped ps-file, 65 KB)
• Ljupco Kocarev, Jochen Bröcker and Ulrich Parlitz Normal Hyperbolicity and Robust Synchronisation, Proc. NOLTA'99
• Full text (gzipped ps-file, 225 KB)
• 2000
• Jochen Bröcker and Ulrich Parlitz Noise reduction and filtering of chaotic time series, Proc. NOLTA2000
• Full text (pdf-file, 189 KB)
• 2001
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker and Ulrich Parlitz Efficient noncausal noise reduction for deterministic time series, Chaos, Vol. 11, No. 2, June 2001
• Full text (gzipped ps-file, 186 KB)
• 2002
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker, Ulrich Parlitz and Maciej Ogorzalek Nonlinear Noise Reduction, Proc. of the IEEE, Vol. 90, No. 5, May 2002
• Full text (gzipped ps-file, 193 KB)
• (RP) Lucas Illing, Jochen Bröcker, Ljupco Kocarev, Ulrich Parlitz, and Henry D. I. Abarbanel When are synchronization errors small? Phys. Rev. E, Issue 3, September 2002
• Abstract (html-file)
• 2003
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker, Ulrich Parlitz Analyzing Communication Schemes Using Methods from Nonlinear Filtering, Chaos 2003
• Full text (pdf-file, 249 KB)
• 2004
• Jochen Bröcker, Liam Clarke, Devin Kilminster and Leonard A. Smith Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts
• Full text (MsWord-file, 249 KB)
• Liam Clarke, Jochen Bröcker, Devin Kilminster and Leonard A. Smith Do Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Yield Added Value
• Full text (pdf-file, 249 KB)
• Devin Kilminster, Liam Clarke, Jochen Bröcker, Mark Roulston, Christine Ziemann and Leonard A. Smith From MOS to eMOS: Generalising Model Output Statistics For Full Ensemble Forecasts
• Full text(pdf-file, 215 KB)
• 2005
• Jochen Bröcker On Comparing Nonlinear Filtering AlgorithmsNOLTA 2005, Bruges, Belgium
• Full text (pdf-file, 249 KB)
• Christian Merkwirth, Jochen Bröcker, Jörg Wichard, and Maciej Ogorzalek Can DT-CNN Classifiers Outperform SVM's?NOLTA 2005, Bruges, Belgium
• 2006
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker, Leonard A. Smith Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts; On the Importance of Being Proper Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 22, No. 2, 2007
• Full text (pdf-file, 120 KB)
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker, Leonard A. Smith Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2007.
• Full text (pdf-file, 120 KB)
• 2007
• Jochen Bröcker, Leonard A. Smith Seeing Through Ensembles ISI Lisbon
• Full text (pdf-file, KB)
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker, Leonard A. Smith From Ensemble Forecasts to Predictive Distribution Functions Tellus A, Vol. 60, Pg. 663-678, 2008
• e-mail me for full text
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker Some Remarks on the Reliability of Categorical Probability Forecasts Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, Pg. 4488-4502, 2008, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2329.1
• Available from the Max-Planck edoc server, document ID: 330795
• 2008
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker On reliability analysis of multi-categorical forecasts Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol. 15, No. 4, 2008
• Download from Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
• (RP) Sarah Hallerberg, Jochen Bröcker, Holger Kantz Prediction of Extreme Events In: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis in the Geosciences, Donner, Reik V.; Barbosa, Susana M. (Eds.), Springer Series: Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences, Vol. 112, 2008
• email me for full text
• 2009
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker Reliability, Sufficiency, and the Decomposition of Proper Scores Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 135, No. 643, Pages 1512 - 1519
• full text
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker Regularized Logistic Models For Probabilistic Forecasting and Diagnostics Monthly Weather Review (to appear)
• email me for full text
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker, David Engster, and Ulrich Parlitz Probabilistic evaluation of time series models; A comparison of several approaches Chaos (to appear)
• email me for full text
• 2010
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker On variational data assimilation in continuous time Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol.136, No.652, 2010
• Available on arxiv
• 2011
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker, Holger Kantz The concept of exchangeability in ensemble forecasting Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol.18, No.1, 2011
• Download from Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker, Stefan Siegert, and Holger Kantz Comment on ``conditional exceedance probabilities'' Monthly Weather Review, 2011 (accepted)
• email me for full text
• (RP) Stefan Siegert, Jochen Bröcker, and Holger Kantz Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011 (accepted)
• email me for full text
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker, Ivan Szendro Sensitivity and Out-Of-Sample Error in Continuous Time Data Assimilation Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011 (accepted)
• full text
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score Climate Dynamics, 2011 (accepted)
• full text
• (RP) Jochen Bröcker Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011 (accepted)
• full text
• Submitted or in revision
• Jochen Bröcker, Gianluigi Del Magno Invariant measures for random transformations expanding on average Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems, 2011 (submitted)
• email me for full text