OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH
Fields of Concentration
Primary
  • international macroeconomics and finance
  • monetary theory and policy
Secondary
  • political macroeconomics and socioeconomic dynamics
  • bounded rationality, information and learning
Research Statement

pdf
Academic Journal Boards
Associate Editor Editorial Board Member Advisory Board Member
  • Sci (August 2018 - April 2023)
PUBLICATIONS
Most papers listed below (in reverse chronological order of acceptance) are also downloadable from the following online archives: For many of my replication codes to research papers, see: For some of my research-based policy columns for learned societies or scientifically-oriented media, see: For social media posts, mostly related to my research activities and interests, see:
Articles in Refereed Academic Journals

20. Limited Asset Market Participation and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy, with Paul Levine, Stephen McKnight and Jonathan Swarbrick, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Controls in press (published online: 27 January 2025; open access) earlier version as: 19. The Money Multiplier and Competing Theories of Money Creation: Empirical Validation for Russia, with Vadim O. Grishchenko and Vasily N. Tkachev, Cambridge Journal of Economics in press; earlier version as:
  • Department of Economics Discussion Paper 2021-15, July 2021, University of Reading: pdf (an earlier version with a slightly different title: Money Creation in Russia: Does the Money Multiplier Exist?)
18. Fiscal Policy and Inequality in Middle- and High-Income Countries: Redistributive Effects of Tax and Spending Shocks, with Abdulaleem Isiaka and Giovanni Razzu, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 29, article e12, 2025, in press (published online: 15 April 2024; open access); earlier version as:
  • Department of Economics Discussion Paper 2022-09, August 2022, University of Reading: pdf (an earlier version with a slightly different title: Distributional Effects of Public Spending and Tax Shocks in Middle-Income Countries: A Panel VAR Approach)
17. Complex Systems Modelling of Community Inclusion Currencies, with Andrew Clark and Michael Zargham, Computational Economics, Vol. 64, No. 2, August 2024, 1259-1294 (published online: 28 September 2023; open access); earlier versions as: 16. Rallying around the EU Flag: Ruissia's Invasion of Ukraine and Attitudes toward European Integration, with Nils Steiner, Ruxanda Berlinschi, Etienne Farvaque, Jan Fidrmuc, Philipp Harms, Michael Neugart and Piotr Stanek; Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 61, No. 2, March 2023, 283-301 (lead article; published online: 13 December 2022; open access); earlier versions as:
  • BOFIT Discussion Paper 9-2022 (October), Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), Bank of Finland, Helsinki: pdf
  • CESifo Working Paper 9883-2022 (August), CESifo, Munich: pdf to download
15. Recent Trends in International Reserves: Theory and Evidence, Open Economies Review, Vol. 33, No. 5, November 2022, 807-815 (published online: 24 November 2022) 14. Sudden Stops, Productivity and the Optimal Level of International Reserves for Small Open Economies, with Harun Nasir; Open Economies Review, Vol. 33, No. 5, November 2022, 825-851 (published online: 5 August 2022; open access); earlier version as: 13. On the Long-Run Solution to Aggregate Housing Systems, with Geoffrey Meen and Yehui Wang; Urban Studies, Vol. 59, No. 1, January 2022, 178-196 (published online: 24 January 2021; open access); earlier version as:
  • Endogenous UK Housing Cycles and the Risk Premium: Understanding the Next Housing Crisis: Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2016-119, April 2016 (revised: October 2016), Department of Economics, University of Reading (initial detailed version with technical appendix): pdf
12. What Do Latin American Inflation Targeters Care About? A Comparative Bayesian Estimation of Central Bank Preferences, with Stephen McKnight and Antonio Pompa Rangel; Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 63, March 2020, 103188 (published online: 27 December 2019); earlier versions as: 11. Inflation Forecasting Using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a Time-Varying Trend, with Stephen McKnight and Fabio Rumler; Economic Modelling, Vol. 87, May 2020, 383-393 (published online: 22 August 2019); earlier versions as:
  • NKPC-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Time-Varying Trend, with Stephen McKnight and Fabio Rumler: Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2018-05, July 2018, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos (slightly more detailed than the published version): pdf
  • Predictive Performance of Fundamental Inflation Concepts: An Application to the Euro Area and the United States, with Stephen McKnight, Kerry Patterson and Fabio Rumler: Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2014-108, May 2014 (revised: January 2016), Henley Business School, University of Reading (a different version with an alternative forecasting procedure, and with more detail on the literature): pdf
10. Recent Developments in Macro-econometric Modeling: Theory and Applications, with with Gilles Dufrénot and Fredj Jawadi Econometrics, Vol. 6, No. 2, Article 6, 2018 9. The Grand Experiment of Communism: Discovering the Trade-off between Equality and Efficiency, with Etienne Farvaque and Alireza Naghavi; Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, Vol. 174, No. 4, December 2018, 707-742 (published online: 16 March 2018); earlier versions as: 8. Who Supports the ECB? Evidence from Eurobarometer Survey Data, with Etienne Farvaque and Azmat Hayat, The World Economy, Vol. 40, No. 4, April 2017, 654-677, lead article (published online: 1 November 2016); earlier versions as: 7. Do Real Balance Effects Invalidate the Taylor Principle in Closed and Open Economies?, with Stephen McKnight, Economica, Vol. 82, No. 328, October 2015, 938-975 (published online: 10 April 2015); earlier versions as:
  • Centro de Estudios Económicos Documento de trabajo DT-2012-10, El Colegio de México, May 2012 (an extended and considerably revised version of Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2007-52, October 2007 - see below): pdf
  • Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, University of Surrey, March 2010 (a partial and shorter revised version of Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2007-52, October 2007 - see next): pdf
  • Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2007-052, October 2007, Business School, University of Reading (under the title Re-examining the Importance of Trade Openness for Aggregate Instability): pdf
  • Economic Analysis Research Group Working Paper 2007-012, October 2007, Business School, University of Reading (same as above)
6. Inflation Dynamics in the New EU Member States: How Relevant Are External Factors?, with Fabio Rumler and Johann Scharler, Review of International Economics, Vol. 19, No. 1, February 2011, 65-76 (published online: 20 January 2011); earlier versions as:
  • Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2010-085, February 2010, Henley Business School, University of Reading (revised): pdf
  • Economics Working Paper 0913, October 2009, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz (initial): pdf
5. Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields and Methods from Past to Future, with Philip Arestis, Journal of Economic Surveys, Vol. 25, No. 4, September 2011, 679-800 (published online: 27 July 2010); for comments and discussion of a slightly extended version (August 2011), see the Journal of Economic Surveys - Wiley Blackwell online conference Communications with Economists: Current and Future Trends; earlier versions as: 4. The Small Open-Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Empirical Evidence and Implied Inflation Dynamics, with Fabio Rumler and Johann Scharler, Open Economies Review, Vol. 22, No. 2, April 2011, 317-337 (published online: 8 July 2009); earlier versions as:
  • Economics Working Paper 0817, September 2008, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz (longer version, with more details on the derivation of the main econometric specifications, but without any structural parameter estimation): pdf
  • Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2008-63, September 2008, Henley Business School, University of Reading (same version as above): pdf
  • 2nd International Conference on Small Open Economies in a Globalized World, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 12-15 June 2008 (longer 1st draft, with more details on the related literature and the model interpretation in the appendixes; contains an additional appendix, Appendix B): pdf
3. Flexible Rules cum Constrained Discretion: A New Consensus in Monetary Policy, with Philip Arestis, Economic Issues, Vol. 14, Part 2, September 2009, 27-54 (published online: 19 September 2009); earlier versions as: 2. Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices in Macrodata: A Comparative Sensitivity Analysis, International Journal of Finance & Economics, Vol. 14, No. 4, October 2009, 346-377 (published online: 10 July 2008); earlier versions as: 1. Operational Independence, Inflation Targeting and UK Monetary Policy, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol. 28, No. 3, Spring 2006, 395-421; earlier versions as:
Departmental Working/Discussion Papers

12. Currency Compositions of International Reserves: Recent Developments, with Falk Laser and Jan Weidner: 11. COVID-19 Cases and Stock Prices by Sector in Major Economies: What Do We Learn from the Daily Data?, with Hussein Hassan and Minko Markovski: 10. Green Quantitative Easing as Intergenerational Climate Justice: On Political Theory and Pareto Efficiency in Reversing Now Human-Caused Environmental Damage, with Josep Ferret Mas: 9. Persistent Divides in Beliefs, Conflict, and Innovation, with Masao Ogaki:
  • Keio-IES Discussion Paper 2021-004, March 2021, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University: pdf
8. Quantifying the Macroeconomic Effects of the COVID-19 Lockdown: Comparative Simulations of the Estimated Galí-Smets-Wouters Model 7. Government Unemployment Insurance for All? The Fall of the Berlin Wall and Social Preferences Evolution, with Maqsood Aslam and Etienne Farvaque: 6. Why Private Cryptocurrencies Cannot Serve as International Reserves but Central Bank Digital Currencies Can, with Andrew Clark: 5. Heterogeneous Effects of Single Monetary Policy on Unemployment Rates in the Largest EMU Economies, with Giovanni Razzu and Zhe Wang: 4. Institution Design for Macroeconomic Policy, with Katrin Ullrich:
  • Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2015-116, January 2015 (revised: July 2015), Department of Economics, University of Reading: pdf
3. A Theory of the Intergenerational Dynamics of Inflation Beliefs and Monetary Institutions, with Etienne Farvaque; versions as:
  • Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2014-107, February 2014 (revised: July 2023), Department of Economics, University of Reading (split, developed and revised version of the theoretical part of IRISS WP 2009-11, September 2009): pdf
2. Intergenerational Transmission of Inflation Preferences and Monetary Institutions: Theory and Evidence, with Etienne Farvaque; versions as: 1. Independence and Accountability of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Committees, with Katrin Ullrich; versions as:
  • Economics and Management Discussion Paper 2008-72, September 2008, Henley Business School, University of Reading (revised ZEW DP 07-044): pdf
  • Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim Discussion Paper 07-044, July 2007, ZEW Mannheim (shorter; but with endogenous overriding): pdf
  • 2007 annual symposium paper of the European research group (GdRE) in Banking and Monetary Economics (earlier, April 2007, and longer, with a detailed literature review; but with exogenous overriding): pdf
Co-Authored Books

3. Money, Banking and Monetary Policy (undergraduate textbook, in Bulgarian), with Tzvetan Mantchev and Ivan Iskrov, "Banker" Private College and "St. Kliment Ohridski" University Press, Sofia, 1998

2. Glossary of Macroeconomic and Banking Terms (undergraduate terminology reference, in Bulgarian), with Tzvetan Mantchev, "Banker" Private College and "St. Kliment Ohridski" University Press, Sofia, 1996

1. Financial Policy in Bulgaria in the Transition Period to Market Economy (in Bulgarian, translated in English), with Mariela Nenova, Nikolina Micheva and Tzvetan Mantchev, Institute for Market Economics, Sofia, 1996

Chapters in Books

2. summary articles in The Encyclopedia of Central Banking, edited by Louis-Philippe Rochon and Sergio Rossi, Edward Elgar, 2015, on:
  • Exchange-Rate Interventions (pp. 165-167)
  • Friedman Rule (pp. 219-222)
  • Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments (pp. 329-331)
1. Economic Aspects of Competition Law as Applied to Banking Activities, with Jean-Christian Lambelet, in "La nuova legge sui cartelli", Commissione ticinese per la formazione permanente dei giuristi, Lugano, 1999: pdf (in French, working paper version)
Other Completed Departmental Working/Discussion Papers

4. Instrument Independence with Goal Dependence: Lessons from the Bank of England's Reaction Function; manuscript, Department of Economics, University of Reading, August 2007 (shorter): pdf; earlier versions under slightly different titles and focus as:
  • manuscript, Department of Economics, University of Essex, August 2006 (longer), also Money Macro and Finance (MMF) research group 2006 annual conference paper: pdf
  • Economics Department Discussion Paper 601, October 2005, University of Essex (very detailed: includes a discussion on alternative Taylor rule specifications and a technical appendix): pdf
3. The Triple-Parity Law, with Jean-Christian Lambelet, manuscript, Department of Economics, University of Reading, June 2007 (shorter): pdf;
  • also available as manuscript, Department of Economics, University of Reading, February 2007, and 2007 annual symposium paper of the European research group (GdRE) in Banking and Monetary Economics (same): pdf
  • earlier version as Economics Department Discussion Paper 604, November 2005, University of Essex (detailed): pdf
2. When and How Much Does a Peg Increase Trade? The Role of Trade Costs and Import Demand Elasticity under Monetary Uncertainty, currently being revised;
  • earlier version as Economics Department Discussion Paper 567, October 2003, University of Essex: pdf
  • the same version was included in May 2004 under No. 122247000000000203 in David K. Levine's Economic and Game Theory Bibliography archive at the Department of Economics of the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA)
1. Effects of the Exchange-Rate Regime on Trade under Monetary Uncertainty: The Role of Price Setting, currently being revised; earlier version as Economics Department Discussion Paper 566, October 2003, University of Essex: pdf
Non-Refereed Academic Publications

3. "Créa" Business Cycle Indicators Revisited, with Jean-Marc Natal, in "Analyses & prévisions", Spring 2000, "Créa" Institute of Applied Macroeconomics, University of Lausanne (in French)

2. A Note on Switzerland's Economy: Did the Swiss Economy Really Stagnate in the 1990s, and Is Switzerland Really All That Rich?, with Jean-Christian Lambelet, in "Analyses et prévisions", Spring 1999, "Créa" Institute of Applied Macroeconomics, University of Lausanne: pdf
  • cited in Kehoe, T.J. and Ruhl, K.J., 2005, "Is Switzerland in a Great Depression?", Review of Economic Dynamics 8 (3, July), 759-775
1. The Currency Board and the Prospects for Growth of the Bulgarian Economy: on the Importance of the Choice of an Exchange Ratio for the Lev (in Bulgarian, translated in English), with Tzvetan Mantchev, "Monthly Bulletin" 4/1997 (April), Bulgarian National Bank, Sofia

Externally-Funded Consultancy-Related Publications

5. The Importance of Switzerland, Geneva and Lausanne as Financial Centres (in French), with Jean-Christian Lambelet, "Créa" Institute of Applied Macroeconomics (awarded and funded by the "Geneva Financial Centre" Foundation and the Banking Association of the Canton of Vaud), University of Lausanne, December 2001

4. Casino Crans-Montana: Investigation on Economic Utility (in French), "Créa" Institute of Applied Macroeconomics (awarded and funded by the Groupe Divonne), University of Lausanne, March 2001

3. Lagged Taxation on Financial Investments of Natural Persons in Emerging Small- and Medium-Size Enterprises: An Attempt to Quantify the Principal Economic Effects for the Canton of Vaud (in French, translated in German), "Créa" Institute of Applied Macroeconomics (awarded and funded by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Canton of Vaud), University of Lausanne, February 1999

2. Bulgaria: Macroeconomic Report, "Expandia" Co. Ltd., Prague, September 1997

1. Movement of Capital and Payments. Monetary and Financial Policies and Convertibility of the Bulgarian Lev, with Lubomir Christov, in the "white book" of expert recommendations on EU accession entitled "Europe 2000. Bulgaria and the European Union", Centre for the Study of Democracy, Sofia: pdf, August 1995 (also in Bulgarian, July 1995)

WORK IN PROGRESS
Co-Authored Book in Progress

Advanced International Macroeconomics and Finance, with Miguel León-Ledesma, MSc-level book contracted with Oxford University Press, October 2008, to be published soon, about 400 p. All chapters with datasets, programs and exercises available for class use upon request book detailed structure/synopsis: pdf


PART I. MACROECONOMIC CONCEPTS AND THEORIES OF EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT
Chapter 1. Basic Notions of Open-Economy Macroeconomics
Chapter 2. Static Macroeconomic Approaches to the Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate
Chapter 3. Dynamic Macroeconomic Approaches to the Balance of Payments and the Exchange Rate


PART II. FOUNDATIONS OF INTERTEMPORAL TRADE, RISK SHARING AND THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE
Chapter 4. The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account: Analytical Introduction of Time
Chapter 5. Asset Markets and Risk Sharing: Analytical Introduction of Uncertainty
Chapter 6. The Real Exchange Rate


PART III. OPTIMISING MODELS OF INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS AND FINANCE
Chapter 7. Optimising Models of Exchange Rates, Asset Prices, and Business Cycles Under Flexible Prices
Chapter 8. New Open-Economy Macroeconomics Models of Exchange Rates and Policy Coordination
Chapter 9. New Keynesian Theory and Empirics of Inflation, Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Open Economies


PART IV. FINANCIAL AND EXCHANGE RATE CRISES AND MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE
Chapter 10. Exchange-Rate Regimes, Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises
Chapter 11. Global Imbalances, the Financial Crisis and Policy Coordination
Chapter 12. Informational Asymmetries and Foreign Exchange Market Microstructure
Papers in Progress

10. Radical Religious Rule and Human Capital: Evidence from the Taliban Regime in Afghanistan, with Nikita Brunner

9. Rallying around the EU Flag: Ruissia's Invasion of Ukraine and Attitudes towards European Integration, with with Nils Steiner, Ruxanda Berlinschi, Etienne Farvaque, Jan Fidrmuc, Philipp Harms, Michael Neugart and Piotr Stanek

8. Empirical Analysis of the Theoretical Channels of Cultural Transmission, with Maqsood Aslam and Etienne Farvaque

7. Quantifying the Macroeconomic Effects of Sizable International Remittances in a DSGE Framework: The Case of Nigeria, with Nathaniel Urama

6. Monetary Policy Transmission in Three Post-Liberalisation Sub-Saharan African Economies: Findings from a Cointegrated VAR Approach, with Remmy Kampamba

5. Limited Information, Financing Conditions and Sectoral Output Comovement, with Johann Scharler

4. Determinacy and Learnability of Equilibrium under Imperfect Exchange-Rate Pass-Through, with Stephen McKnight

3. Intertemporal and Intratemporal Consumption Substitutabilities and the Taylor Principle in New Keynesian Open Economies, with Stephen McKnight

2. Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Yield Curve with Heterogeneous Expectations, with Jagjit Chadha and Alex Waters

1. Expecting to Learn: Asset Prices and History Dependence, with Jagjit Chadha
Selected Columns and Engagement with the Media and Policymakers

10. Currency denomination of foreign exchange reserves: From taboo in the past towards disclosure and exciting research nowadays, VoxEU column of 25 October 2024 based on our BOFIT Policy Brief No. 6 / 2024 with Falk Laser and Jan Weidner of 6 September 2024: link

9. How do greening prosperity stripes help measure progress towards net zero?, Economics Observatory, online article based on my discussion paper “Greening Prosperity Stripes across the Globe” (pdf), 12 September 2024: link

8. Marginal Babble Episode No. 8, a podcast by Max Dorey,recorded on 9 May 2023 in my office as we were talking, and released on YouTube on 25 June 2023, where I share insights from my most recent research on topical issues of global and national significance, 9 May / 25 June 2023: link

7. L’invasion de l’Ukraine a ravivé le sentiment pro-européen, AFSE column (in French), with Nils D. Steiner, Ruxanda Berlinschi, Etienne Farvaque, Jan Fidrmuc, Philipp Harms, Michael Neugart and Piotr Stanek, VoxEU column based on our article “Rallying around the EU flag: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attitudes toward European integration”, published in the Journal of Common Market Studies as lead article in issue No. 2 of March 2023, 27 February 2023: link

6. Europeans rallied around the EU flag after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine , with Nils D. Steiner, Ruxanda Berlinschi, Etienne Farvaque, Jan Fidrmuc, Philipp Harms, Michael Neugart and Piotr Stanek, VoxEU column based on our article “Rallying around the EU flag: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attitudes toward European integration”, published online in December 2022 in the Journal of Common Market Studies, 3 January 23: link

5. Why Bulgaria and Poland can withstand Russia cutting off their gas supply, article in The Conversaion, 27 April 2022: link

4. Why Russia has put the rouble on a gold standard - but it's unlikely to last, article in The Conversaion, 5 April 2022: link

3. Why paying in roubles for Russian gas and oil might matter, VoxEU column, 29 March 2022: link

2. What next for Ukraine, Russia and the world?, The Conversation, one-hour live-streamed online academic panel of four experts (where I am the only economist), 14 March 2022: link to the recording

1. European Parliament Briefing of December 2021 cites our research on central bank digital currencies in a DP of 2020, Why private cryptocurrencies cannot serve as international reserves but central bank digital currencies can (pdf), co-authored with Andrew Clark link
CONTRIBUTIONS TO RESEARCH EVENTS
PhD Dissertation

The Exchange-Rate Regime and Trade: A New Open-Economy Macroeconomics Perspective with Pass-Through Empirics, July 2004, University of Lausanne; summary (posted online since August 2004): pdf; full thesis (posted online since May 2024): pdf