Publications

Please note until the end of 2018 I published under the name of 'Caroline Dunning'.

2021

Senior, C.A., Marsham, J.H., Berthou, S., Burgin, L., Folwell, S.S., Kendon, E.J., Klein, C.M., Jones, R.G., Mittal, N., Rowell, D.P., Tomassini, L., Vischel, T., Becker, B., Birch, C.E., Crook, J., Dougill, A.J., Finney, D.L., Graham, R.J., Hart, N.C.G., Jack, C.D., Jackson, L.S., James, R., Koelle, B., Misiani, H., Mwalukanga, B., Parker, D.J., Stratton, R.A., Taylor, C.M., Tucker, S.O., Wainwright, C.M., Washington, R., Willet, M.R. (2021) Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0020.1

Taylor, J., Nicoll, M., Black, E., Wainwright, C.M., Jones, C., Tatayah, V., Vidale, P.L., and Norris, K. (2021) Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species, Climatic Change, 164, 41, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02971-y

Wainwright, C.M., Marsham, J.H., Rowell, D.P., Finney, D.L., and Black, E. (2021) Future changes in seasonality in Eastern Africa from regional simulations with explicit and parametrised convection, Journal of Climate, 34, 4, 1367–1385, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0450.1

Wainwright, C.M., Finney, D.L., Kilavi, M., Black, E., and Marsham, J.H. (2021) Extreme rainfall in East Africa October 2019–January 2020 and context under future climate change, Weather, 76, 26-31, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3824

2020

Black, E., Pinnington, E., Wainwright, C.M., Lahive, F., Quaife, T., Allan, R.P., Cook, P., Daymond, A., Hadley, P., McGuire, P.C., Verhoef, A. and Vidale, P.L. (2020) Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 014009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3

Monerie, P., Wainwright, C.M., Sidibe, M. and Akinsanola, A.A. (2020) Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, Climate Dynamics, 55, 1385–1401, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0

2019

Wainwright, C.M., Hirons, L.C., Klingaman, N.P., Allan, R.P., Black, E., and Turner, A.G. (2019) The impact of air–sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation, Climate Dynamics, 53, 7027–7044, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0/

Wainwright, C.M., Marsham, J.H., Keane, R.J., Rowell, D.P., Finney, D.L. Black, E., and Allan, R.P. (2019) ‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2, 34, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7

2018

Dunning, C.M., Black, E. and Allan, R.P. (2018) Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change, Journal of Climate, 31, 9719–9738, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1 | Press Release

2017

Dunning, C.M., Allan, R.P. and Black, E. (2017) Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models, Environmental Research Letters, 12(11), 114001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa869e | Paper | Supplementary Information | Blog

2016

Dunning, C.M., E Black, and R.P. Allan (2016) The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 11,405-11,424, doi: 10.1002/2016JD025428 | Paper | Supplementary Information | Blog

2015

Dunning, C. M., Turner, A. G., & Brayshaw, D. J. (2015). The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India. Environmental Research Letters, 10(6), 064002 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064002.

Kolusu, S. R., Marsham, J. H., Mulcahy, J., Johnson, B., Dunning, C., Bush, M., & Spracklen, D. V. (2015). Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15(21), 12251-12266, doi:10.5194/acp-15-12251-2015.

2014

Gray, S. L., Dunning, C. M., Methven, J., Masato, G., & Chagnon, J. M. (2014). Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(8), 2979-2987, doi: 10.1002/2014GL059282.