I lead interdisciplinary research into forecast-based financing of anticipatory actions for natural hazards, drawing heavily on my expertise in hydrometeorological hazards, forecasts and uncertainty.
Responsibilities:
Research Interests:
- Early warning systems and impact-based forecasting for hydrometeorological hazards
- Forecast-based Financing / Forecast-based Action, especially in humanitarian contexts
- Usability and understanding of probabilistic forecasts, decision-making under uncertainty
- Development and evaluation of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS)
- Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting and forecast evaluation
Research Projects:
- Principle Investigator: Forecasts for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM)
- Co-I Predicting Impacts of Cyclones in South-East Africa (PICSEA)
- Co-I National-Scale Impact-based Forecasting of Flood Risk in Uganda(NIMFRU)
- Co-I Improving the Role of Information Systems in Anticipatory Disaster Risk Reduction (IRIS)
- Co-I Improving Predictions of Drought for User Decision-Making (IMPETUS)
Postdoctoral Supervision:
- Dr Andrea Ficchi (FATHUM) - Hydrometeorology
- Dr Linda Speight (FATHUM) - Applied Flood Forecasting
- Dr Tobias Pforr (FATHUM) - Political Economy
- Dr Sara de Wit (FATHUM, Oxford University) - Social Anthropology
Postgraduate Supervision:
Please feel free to contact me if you are interested in PhD research under any of my areas of interest. I am particularly keen to support potential students from groups not well represented in academia. The main route for funded studentships for UK / EU students is through the NERC SCENARIO DTP.Lead Supervisor:
- Sazzad Hossain Extended range hydrometeorological forecasting for improved flood early warning to support earlier flood preparedness. Funded by NERC SHEAR Programme.
- Faith Mitheu A model for impact-based flood early warning in Uganda. Funded by NERC SHEAR Programme.
- Harshita Gupta. Modelling the frequency of extreme event forecasts for the management of funds for humanitarian action.
- Siobhan DolanEarly warning of flash flood and landslide risk in S Asia. Funded by NERC SHEAR Programme. With ECMWF and British Geological Survey.
- Fatima Pillosu Statistical analysis of ECMWF Ensemble to improve rainfall inputs in real-time flood forecasting systems. Forecast Department, ECMWF
- Helen Titley Global flood predictability, early warning and the communication of probabilistic forecasts. Funded by the Met Office
- Maureen Anyango WanzalaSeamless seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasts of flood risk in River Nzoia Basin. Funded by a Commonwealth Scholarship
- Ervin Zsoter Understanding global flood hazard climatology for improved early flood warning. Funded by a Wilkie Calvert Studentship at ECMWF
Former PhD Students:
First Supervisor:- Dr Jamie Towner Climate variability and extended-range flood forecasting for the Peruvian Amazon. With Red Cross Climate Centre. Funded by NERC SCENARIO. (Currently a scientist at ECMWF)
- Dr Louise Arnal. Seasonal hydrological forecasting over Europe: prospects and applications. With ECMWF. Funded by a Faculty of Science Award and IMPREX (EC Horizon 2020 project) (Currently a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada)
- Dr Rebecca Emerton. Extending the predictability of flood hazard at the global scale. Funded by NERC SCENARIO. (Currently a scientist at ECMWF)