Current Research
In October 2013 I began a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship at the University of Reading, working on an end-user focussed evaluation of global flood forecasts. I am working with researchers from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Reading) and the Joint Research Centre (Ispra) who developed the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) that has been run operationally since 2011. I also work closely with the World Food Programme and the Red Cross Climate Centre to better understand the needs of humanitarian users for global flood forecasts.
My current research aims to better understand GloFAS model behaviour through the use of reforecasts (rerunning the current version of the model back in time) and the forecast archive. I will be developing new methodologies for evaluating the skill of these forecasts at the spatial and temporal scales relevant to end-users, and promoting and documenting an active dialogue between the forecasters and end-users to help guide the use and development of the forecasting system.
Please get in touch if you are interested in the project.
Research Interests
- The importance of reforecasts for understanding model behaviour at the extremes
- Model-climatology approaches to flood forecasting in data-poor areas
- Linking forecasts of river flow to predictions of flood hazard and impact (see my HEPEX blog post on the topic)
- Tackling flood forecast evaluation in data-poor areas
- Developing and promoting the use of forecasts for anticipatory humanitarian action
- Interdisciplinary approaches to understanding the forecasting enterprise (working with researchers from the University of Oxford, see Bio)